Todesfelde vs St. Pauli II Statistics & Analysis

Todesfelde

Aug 02, 2026 - 12:00

6 1.25

4 1.35

xG Accuracy: 13%

St. Pauli II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (10 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 St. Pauli II Todesfelde ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1944287

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Todesfelde win · Todesfelde 6–4 St. Pauli II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Regionalliga - Nord
Fixture: Todesfelde vs St. Pauli II
Kickoff: 2026-08-02 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Todesfelde 1.25 — St. Pauli II 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Regionalliga - Nord — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Schöningen	11	7	3	1	24
2	Phönix Lübeck	10	7	2	1	23
3	Weiche Flensburg	10	7	1	2	22
4	SV Drochtersen/Assel	11	7	1	3	22
5	VfB Oldenburg	10	7	1	2	22
6	Hannover 96 II	10	5	3	2	18
7	Kickers Emden	11	5	3	3	18
8	Atlas Delmenhorst	11	4	3	4	15
9	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	3	4	4	13
10	Eimsbütteler TV	11	4	1	6	13
11	Werder Bremen II	10	3	2	5	11
12	VfB Lübeck	11	2	5	4	11
13	St. Pauli II	11	3	1	7	10
14	SSV Jeddeloh	11	3	1	7	10
15	Hamburger SV II	11	3	1	7	10
16	HSC Hannover	11	2	4	5	10
17	Bremer SV	10	2	2	6	8
18	Todesfelde	11	2	2	7	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	SV Drochtersen/Assel	11	33	16	+17	22
2	VfB Oldenburg	10	31	14	+17	22
3	Kickers Emden	11	31	30	+1	18
4	Weiche Flensburg	10	30	12	+18	22
5	Phönix Lübeck	10	28	6	+22	23
6	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	23	27	-4	13
7	Hannover 96 II	10	21	14	+7	18
8	Eimsbütteler TV	11	21	33	-12	13
9	St. Pauli II	11	20	21	-1	10
10	Schöningen	11	19	15	+4	24
11	Todesfelde	11	19	37	-18	8
12	Atlas Delmenhorst	11	17	20	-3	15
13	Werder Bremen II	10	16	18	-2	11
14	SSV Jeddeloh	11	16	25	-9	10
15	Hamburger SV II	11	15	25	-10	10
16	HSC Hannover	11	15	26	-11	10
17	VfB Lübeck	11	14	21	-7	11
18	Bremer SV	10	9	18	-9	8