Rancho Santana vs San Marcos Statistics & Analysis

Rancho Santana

Aug 23, 2026 - 22:00

1 1.17

2 1.43

xG Accuracy: 82%

San Marcos

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 San Marcos San Marcos ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4373231

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result San Marcos win · Rancho Santana 1–2 San Marcos

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera Division
Fixture: Rancho Santana vs San Marcos
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
xG (showing): Rancho Santana 1.17 — San Marcos 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Managua	9	7	2	0	23
2	Diriangén	9	6	3	0	21
3	Real Estelí	9	5	3	1	18
4	UNAN Managua	9	5	2	2	17
5	San Marcos	9	3	2	4	11
6	H&H Export	9	3	2	4	11
7	Matagalpa	9	3	0	6	9
8	Walter Ferretti	10	2	1	7	7
9	Jalapa	10	2	1	7	7
10	Rancho Santana	9	1	2	6	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Managua	9	27	9	+18	23
2	Diriangén	9	18	7	+11	21
3	Real Estelí	9	17	6	+11	18
4	Walter Ferretti	10	12	17	-5	7
5	UNAN Managua	9	11	7	+4	17
6	San Marcos	9	9	12	-3	11
7	H&H Export	9	9	17	-8	11
8	Rancho Santana	9	7	14	-7	5
9	Jalapa	10	5	14	-9	7
10	Matagalpa	9	4	16	-12	9