Statistics / Football / Nicaragua. Primera Division / Diriangén vs Rancho Santana

Diriangén vs Rancho Santana Statistics & Analysis

Diriangén Diriangén
Aug 09, 2026 - 00:00
2 1.66
1 0.94
xG Accuracy: 90%
Rancho Santana Rancho Santana
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Diriangén Diriangén ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2958631

Closing Odds 1.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Diriangén win · Diriangén 2–1 Rancho Santana
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Rancho Santana (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 14.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Diriangén (1X2) 52.9 77.6 -24.7
Draw (1X2) 27.4 13.3 +14.0
Rancho Santana (1X2) 19.8 9.1 +10.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.4% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.3%. The difference — about 14.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Diriangén (1X2) 1.17 1.18 +0.3
Draw (1X2) 6.71 6.86 -0.1
Rancho Santana (1X2) 9.74 10.09 -0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera Division
  • Fixture: Diriangén vs Rancho Santana
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.8% · Draw 27.4% · Away 19.8%
  • xG (showing): Diriangén 1.66 — Rancho Santana 0.94 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 50.9% · No 49.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.9% · No 49.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Division Primera Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Managua 9 7 2 0 23
2 Diriangén 9 6 3 0 21
3 Real Estelí 9 5 3 1 18
4 UNAN Managua 9 5 2 2 17
5 San Marcos 9 3 2 4 11
6 H&H Export 9 3 2 4 11
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 9
8 Walter Ferretti 10 2 1 7 7
9 Jalapa 10 2 1 7 7
10 Rancho Santana 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Managua 9 27 9 +18 23
2 Diriangén 9 18 7 +11 21
3 Real Estelí 9 17 6 +11 18
4 Walter Ferretti 10 12 17 -5 7
5 UNAN Managua 9 11 7 +4 17
6 San Marcos 9 9 12 -3 11
7 H&H Export 9 9 17 -8 11
8 Rancho Santana 9 7 14 -7 5
9 Jalapa 10 5 14 -9 7
10 Matagalpa 9 4 16 -12 9