Statistics / Football / Nicaragua. Primera Division / Real Estelí vs UNAN Managua

Real Estelí vs UNAN Managua Statistics & Analysis

Real Estelí Real Estelí
Jul 18, 2026 - 01:00
1 1.57
1 1.03
xG Accuracy: 85%
UNAN Managua UNAN Managua
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Real Estelí Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 08:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2502278

Closing Odds 1.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Real Estelí 1–1 UNAN Managua
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), UNAN Managua (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Real Estelí (1X2) 56.8 73.9 -17.2
Draw (1X2) 24.7 15.9 +8.8
UNAN Managua (1X2) 18.6 10.2 +8.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.1 -17.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.9 +17.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.9%. The difference — about 17.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Real Estelí (1X2) 1.22 1.22 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.67 5.67 0.0
UNAN Managua (1X2) 8.88 8.88 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.39 1.39 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.71 2.71 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División Nicaragua
  • Fixture: Real Estelí vs UNAN Managua
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 56.8% · Draw 24.7% · Away 18.6%
  • xG (showing): Real Estelí 1.57 — UNAN Managua 1.03 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera Division Primera Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Managua 9 7 2 0 23
2 Diriangén 9 6 3 0 21
3 Real Estelí 9 5 3 1 18
4 UNAN Managua 9 5 2 2 17
5 San Marcos 9 3 2 4 11
6 H&H Export 9 3 2 4 11
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 9
8 Walter Ferretti 10 2 1 7 7
9 Jalapa 10 2 1 7 7
10 Rancho Santana 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Managua 9 27 9 +18 23
2 Diriangén 9 18 7 +11 21
3 Real Estelí 9 17 6 +11 18
4 Walter Ferretti 10 12 17 -5 7
5 UNAN Managua 9 11 7 +4 17
6 San Marcos 9 9 12 -3 11
7 H&H Export 9 9 17 -8 11
8 Rancho Santana 9 7 14 -7 5
9 Jalapa 10 5 14 -9 7
10 Matagalpa 9 4 16 -12 9