Diriangén vs San Marcos Statistics & Analysis

Diriangén

Jul 18, 2026 - 00:00

1 1.53

1 1.07

xG Accuracy: 85%

San Marcos

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Diriangén Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 22:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1933726

Closing Odds 1.13

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Diriangén 1–1 San Marcos

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), San Marcos (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on San Marcos (1X2) by about 19.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Diriangén (1X2)	46.3	80.7	-34.4
Draw (1X2)	28.7	14.2	+14.5
San Marcos (1X2)	24.9	5.1	+19.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 24.9% on San Marcos (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 5.1%. The difference — about 19.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Diriangén (1X2)	1.13	1.13
Draw (1X2)	6.42	6.42
San Marcos (1X2)	17.92	17.92

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Diriangén; market prices Diriangén instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Diriangén 1.53 xG vs San Marcos 1.07 → Diriangén 46.3%
Market: Diriangén ~80.7% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Managua	9	7	2	0	23
2	Diriangén	9	6	3	0	21
3	Real Estelí	9	5	3	1	18
4	UNAN Managua	9	5	2	2	17
5	San Marcos	9	3	2	4	11
6	H&H Export	9	3	2	4	11
7	Matagalpa	9	3	0	6	9
8	Walter Ferretti	10	2	1	7	7
9	Jalapa	10	2	1	7	7
10	Rancho Santana	9	1	2	6	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Managua	9	27	9	+18	23
2	Diriangén	9	18	7	+11	21
3	Real Estelí	9	17	6	+11	18
4	Walter Ferretti	10	12	17	-5	7
5	UNAN Managua	9	11	7	+4	17
6	San Marcos	9	9	12	-3	11
7	H&H Export	9	9	17	-8	11
8	Rancho Santana	9	7	14	-7	5
9	Jalapa	10	5	14	-9	7
10	Matagalpa	9	4	16	-12	9