Statistics / Football / Turkey. 1. Lig / Mardin BB vs Fatih Karagümrük

Mardin BB vs Fatih Karagümrük Statistics & Analysis

Mardin BB Mardin BB
Oct 15, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.21
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 65%
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fatih Karagümrük Mardin BB ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 09, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-14189338

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mardin BB win · Mardin BB 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Lig
  • Fixture: Mardin BB vs Fatih Karagümrük
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-15 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.3% · Draw 29.5% · Away 37.2%
  • xG (showing): Mardin BB 1.21 — Fatih Karagümrük 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.58)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Lig 1. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kayserispor 10 8 1 1 25
2 Bursaspor 10 7 1 2 22
3 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 10 6 2 2 20
4 Batman Petrolspor 10 6 1 3 19
5 Mardin BB 10 5 3 2 18
6 Keçiörengücü 10 4 5 1 17
7 Sarıyer 10 4 3 3 15
8 Antalyaspor 10 5 0 5 15
9 Bandırmaspor 10 3 5 2 14
10 Fatih Karagümrük 10 3 4 3 13
11 Sivasspor 10 2 6 2 12
12 Muğlaspor 10 2 6 2 12
13 BB Bodrumspor 10 2 5 3 11
14 Manisa BBSK 10 2 4 4 10
15 Pendikspor 10 2 4 4 10
16 Erokspor 10 1 6 3 9
17 Ümraniyespor 9 1 4 4 7
18 Van BB 10 2 3 5 7
19 İstanbulspor 10 1 2 7 5
20 Boluspor 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kayserispor 10 22 5 +17 25
2 Bursaspor 10 20 9 +11 22
3 Batman Petrolspor 10 20 17 +3 19
4 Keçiörengücü 10 19 10 +9 17
5 Bandırmaspor 10 15 6 +9 14
6 Manisa BBSK 10 15 16 -1 10
7 Antalyaspor 10 15 17 -2 15
8 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 10 14 8 +6 20
9 Sivasspor 10 14 13 +1 12
10 Fatih Karagümrük 10 13 13 0 13
11 Sarıyer 10 13 14 -1 15
12 Mardin BB 10 12 6 +6 18
13 Pendikspor 10 12 19 -7 10
14 BB Bodrumspor 10 11 9 +2 11
15 Van BB 10 10 20 -10 7
16 Muğlaspor 10 9 11 -2 12
17 İstanbulspor 10 9 24 -15 5
18 Ümraniyespor 9 7 10 -3 7
19 Erokspor 10 6 11 -5 9
20 Boluspor 9 3 21 -18 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bandırmaspor 10 3.9 0.7 +3.2 14
2 Kayserispor 10 4.6 2.7 +1.9 25
3 Erokspor 10 3.0 1.2 +1.8 9
4 Bursaspor 10 1.8 0.7 +1.1 22
5 Sarıyer 10 3.8 2.9 +0.9 15
6 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 10 2.3 1.8 +0.5 20
7 Fatih Karagümrük 10 1.1 0.8 +0.3 13
8 İstanbulspor 10 3.2 3.1 +0.1 5
9 Sivasspor 10 4.2 4.3 -0.1 12
10 BB Bodrumspor 10 1.3 1.4 -0.1 11
11 Boluspor 9 0.5 0.7 -0.2 1
12 Keçiörengücü 10 2.4 2.7 -0.3 17
13 Mardin BB 10 0.8 1.1 -0.3 18
14 Batman Petrolspor 10 2.6 3.4 -0.8 19
15 Ümraniyespor 9 1.2 2.0 -0.8 7
16 Muğlaspor 10 0.7 1.8 -1.1 12
17 Manisa BBSK 10 2.1 3.5 -1.4 10
18 Pendikspor 10 0.6 2.2 -1.6 10
19 Van BB 10 0.2 1.8 -1.6 7
20 Antalyaspor 10 1.9 3.6 -1.7 15
1. Lig Turkey. 1. Lig Predictions