Statistics / Football / Turkey. 1. Lig / Antalyaspor vs Van BB

Antalyaspor vs Van BB Statistics & Analysis

Antalyaspor Antalyaspor
Sep 20, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 45%
Van BB Van BB
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 07:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8730778

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Antalyaspor win · Antalyaspor 3–0 Van BB
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Van BB (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Van BB (1X2) by about 15.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Antalyaspor (1X2) 36.6 58.1 -21.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 23.4 +6.3
Van BB (1X2) 33.8 18.5 +15.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 55.2 -7.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 44.8 +7.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Van BB (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.5%. The difference — about 15.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Antalyaspor (1X2) 1.63 1.63 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.05 4.05 0.0
Van BB (1X2) 5.12 5.12 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.73 1.73 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.13 2.13 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Lig
  • Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Van BB
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Antalyaspor 1.33 — Van BB 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Lig 1. Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kayserispor 8 6 1 1 19
2 Bursaspor 8 6 1 1 19
3 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 8 5 1 2 16
4 Batman Petrolspor 8 5 1 2 16
5 Sarıyer 8 4 2 2 14
6 Keçiörengücü 8 3 4 1 13
7 Mardin BB 8 3 3 2 12
8 Antalyaspor 8 4 0 4 12
9 Fatih Karagümrük 8 3 3 2 12
10 Muğlaspor 8 2 5 1 11
11 Bandırmaspor 8 2 4 2 10
12 Pendikspor 8 2 4 2 10
13 Manisa BBSK 8 2 3 3 9
14 BB Bodrumspor 8 1 5 2 8
15 Sivasspor 8 1 5 2 8
16 Ümraniyespor 8 1 3 4 6
17 Erokspor 8 0 5 3 5
18 İstanbulspor 8 1 2 5 5
19 Van BB 8 1 3 4 4
20 Boluspor 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Keçiörengücü 8 17 10 +7 13
2 Bursaspor 8 16 7 +9 19
3 Kayserispor 8 15 3 +12 19
4 Batman Petrolspor 8 15 13 +2 16
5 Antalyaspor 8 14 13 +1 12
6 Bandırmaspor 8 12 5 +7 10
7 76 Iğdır Belediyespor 8 12 7 +5 16
8 Fatih Karagümrük 8 12 11 +1 12
9 Manisa BBSK 8 12 12 0 9
10 Sarıyer 8 11 9 +2 14
11 Pendikspor 8 10 13 -3 10
12 Mardin BB 8 9 5 +4 12
13 Sivasspor 8 9 11 -2 8
14 Muğlaspor 8 8 7 +1 11
15 Van BB 8 8 17 -9 4
16 BB Bodrumspor 8 7 6 +1 8
17 İstanbulspor 8 7 19 -12 5
18 Ümraniyespor 8 6 9 -3 6
19 Erokspor 8 4 10 -6 5
20 Boluspor 8 3 20 -17 1