Statistics / Football / England. National League / Hartlepool vs Tamworth

Hartlepool vs Tamworth Statistics & Analysis

Hartlepool Hartlepool
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
Tamworth Tamworth
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tamworth Tamworth ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11242535

Closing Odds 2.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Tamworth win · Hartlepool 0–1 Tamworth
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Tamworth (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Hartlepool (1X2) 33.8 44.3 -10.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.0 +4.7
Tamworth (1X2) 36.6 30.7 +5.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.2 -11.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.8 +11.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.8%. The difference — about 11.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Hartlepool (1X2) 2.15 2.15 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.81 3.81 0.0
Tamworth (1X2) 3.1 3.1 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.61 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.34 2.34 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National League
  • Fixture: Hartlepool vs Tamworth
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Hartlepool 1.27 — Tamworth 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.9% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National League National League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boreham Wood 12 10 2 0 32
2 Harrogate Town 12 8 1 3 25
3 Southend 12 7 3 2 24
4 Yeovil Town 12 6 4 2 22
5 Worthing 12 6 3 3 21
6 Altrincham 12 7 0 5 21
7 AFC Fylde 12 6 2 4 20
8 Kidderminster Harriers 12 5 4 3 19
9 Barrow 12 5 3 4 18
10 Aldershot Town 12 5 3 4 18
11 Sutton Utd 12 5 3 4 18
12 AFC Hornchurch 12 6 0 6 18
13 FC Halifax Town 12 5 2 5 17
14 Carlisle 12 4 4 4 16
15 Woking 12 4 3 5 15
16 Forest Green 11 4 3 4 15
17 Eastleigh 12 4 3 5 15
18 Tamworth 12 4 2 6 14
19 Wealdstone 12 3 3 6 12
20 Boston United 12 3 3 6 12
21 Scunthorpe 11 3 1 7 10
22 Hartlepool 12 3 0 9 9
23 Solihull Moors 12 2 1 9 7
24 Gateshead 12 1 1 10 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Boreham Wood 12 32 13 +19 32
2 Southend 12 29 18 +11 24
3 Harrogate Town 12 28 17 +11 25
4 Yeovil Town 12 26 15 +11 22
5 Carlisle 12 23 20 +3 16
6 Worthing 12 22 18 +4 21
7 AFC Fylde 12 22 18 +4 20
8 Barrow 12 20 15 +5 18
9 Woking 12 20 19 +1 15
10 Tamworth 12 20 28 -8 14
11 FC Halifax Town 12 18 14 +4 17
12 Aldershot Town 12 17 13 +4 18
13 Altrincham 12 17 18 -1 21
14 Forest Green 11 17 18 -1 15
15 Wealdstone 12 17 18 -1 12
16 Kidderminster Harriers 12 15 12 +3 19
17 Scunthorpe 11 15 19 -4 10
18 Sutton Utd 12 14 16 -2 18
19 Eastleigh 12 14 18 -4 15
20 Boston United 12 14 21 -7 12
21 AFC Hornchurch 12 13 19 -6 18
22 Solihull Moors 12 13 30 -17 7
23 Hartlepool 12 8 17 -9 9
24 Gateshead 12 7 27 -20 4
National League England. National League Predictions