Statistics / Football / England. National League / Eastleigh vs Southend

Eastleigh vs Southend Statistics & Analysis

Eastleigh Eastleigh
Sep 30, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.18
1 1.42
xG Accuracy: 85%
Southend Southend
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Southend Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10588915

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Eastleigh 1–1 Southend
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National League
  • Fixture: Eastleigh vs Southend
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-30 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Eastleigh 1.18 — Southend 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.6% · Probability edge: +14.2 pts · Est. EV: +34.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National League National League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boreham Wood 12 10 2 0 32
2 Harrogate Town 12 8 1 3 25
3 Southend 12 7 3 2 24
4 Yeovil Town 12 6 4 2 22
5 Worthing 12 6 3 3 21
6 Altrincham 12 7 0 5 21
7 AFC Fylde 12 6 2 4 20
8 Kidderminster Harriers 12 5 4 3 19
9 Barrow 12 5 3 4 18
10 Aldershot Town 12 5 3 4 18
11 Sutton Utd 12 5 3 4 18
12 AFC Hornchurch 12 6 0 6 18
13 FC Halifax Town 12 5 2 5 17
14 Carlisle 12 4 4 4 16
15 Woking 12 4 3 5 15
16 Forest Green 11 4 3 4 15
17 Eastleigh 12 4 3 5 15
18 Tamworth 12 4 2 6 14
19 Wealdstone 12 3 3 6 12
20 Boston United 12 3 3 6 12
21 Scunthorpe 11 3 1 7 10
22 Hartlepool 12 3 0 9 9
23 Solihull Moors 12 2 1 9 7
24 Gateshead 12 1 1 10 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Boreham Wood 12 32 13 +19 32
2 Southend 12 29 18 +11 24
3 Harrogate Town 12 28 17 +11 25
4 Yeovil Town 12 26 15 +11 22
5 Carlisle 12 23 20 +3 16
6 Worthing 12 22 18 +4 21
7 AFC Fylde 12 22 18 +4 20
8 Barrow 12 20 15 +5 18
9 Woking 12 20 19 +1 15
10 Tamworth 12 20 28 -8 14
11 FC Halifax Town 12 18 14 +4 17
12 Aldershot Town 12 17 13 +4 18
13 Altrincham 12 17 18 -1 21
14 Forest Green 11 17 18 -1 15
15 Wealdstone 12 17 18 -1 12
16 Kidderminster Harriers 12 15 12 +3 19
17 Scunthorpe 11 15 19 -4 10
18 Sutton Utd 12 14 16 -2 18
19 Eastleigh 12 14 18 -4 15
20 Boston United 12 14 21 -7 12
21 AFC Hornchurch 12 13 19 -6 18
22 Solihull Moors 12 13 30 -17 7
23 Hartlepool 12 8 17 -9 9
24 Gateshead 12 7 27 -20 4
National League England. National League Predictions