Statistics / Football / Moldova. Super Liga / Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol Statistics & Analysis

Petrocub Petrocub
Jul 19, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.36
3 1.24
xG Accuracy: 52%
Sheriff Tiraspol Sheriff Tiraspol
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Petrocub Sheriff Tiraspol ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1540490

Closing Odds 2.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sheriff Tiraspol win · Petrocub 2–3 Sheriff Tiraspol
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.61 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 12.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Petrocub (1X2) 36.5 30.7 +5.8
Draw (1X2) 29.9 33.7 -3.8
Sheriff Tiraspol (1X2) 33.6 35.6 -2.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 36.2 +12.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 63.8 -12.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.2%. The difference — about 12.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Petrocub (1X2) 2.67 2.93 -2.6
Draw (1X2) 2.86 2.67 +2.6
Sheriff Tiraspol (1X2) 2.5 2.53 -0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.44 2.54 -1.2
Under 2.5 goals 1.46 1.44 +1.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Moldovan Super Liga
  • Fixture: Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-19 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.5% · Draw 29.9% · Away 33.6%
  • xG (showing): Petrocub 1.36 — Sheriff Tiraspol 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 38.4% · Probability edge: +9.8 pts · Est. EV: +22.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 13 8 4 1 28
2 Zimbru 13 8 2 3 26
3 Petrocub 13 7 3 3 24
4 Dacia-Buiucani 13 6 2 5 20
5 Milsami Orhei 13 4 5 4 17
6 Politehnica UTM 13 4 3 6 15
7 Sireți 13 0 7 6 7
8 CSF Bălți 13 1 2 10 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 13 32 10 +22 28
2 Zimbru 13 27 12 +15 26
3 Petrocub 13 24 13 +11 24
4 Politehnica UTM 13 18 19 -1 15
5 Dacia-Buiucani 13 17 16 +1 20
6 Milsami Orhei 13 13 17 -4 17
7 CSF Bălți 13 9 42 -33 5
8 Sireți 13 8 19 -11 7