Busko-Zdroj vs Nieciecza Statistics & Analysis

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Busko-Zdroj

Jul 25, 2026 - 12:00

6 1.29

1 1.31

xG Accuracy: 25%

Nieciecza

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza Busko-Zdroj ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453595

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Busko-Zdroj win · Busko-Zdroj 6–1 Nieciecza

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: Busko-Zdrój vs Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza
Kickoff: 2026-07-25 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Busko-Zdrój 1.29 — Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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