Statistics / Football / Turkey. Süper Lig / Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa

Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa Statistics & Analysis

Galatasaray Galatasaray
Oct 09, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.65
1 0.82
xG Accuracy: 66%
Kasimpasa Kasimpasa
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Galatasaray Galatasaray ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12697980

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Galatasaray win · Galatasaray 3–1 Kasimpasa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Süper Lig
  • Fixture: Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 62.2% · Draw 23.5% · Away 14.2%
  • xG (showing): Galatasaray 1.65 — Kasimpasa 0.82 (total xG ≈ 2.47)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 55.1% · Implied: 33.8% · Probability edge: +21.3 pts · Est. EV: +60.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Süper Lig Süper Lig — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Amed 6 4 1 1 13
2 Galatasaray 6 4 1 1 13
3 Besiktas 6 4 0 2 12
4 Kocaelispor 6 4 0 2 12
5 Alanyaspor 6 3 2 1 11
6 Fenerbahce 6 3 1 2 10
7 Trabzonspor 6 3 1 2 10
8 Kasimpasa 6 2 4 0 10
9 Rizespor 6 3 1 2 10
10 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 2 2 2 8
11 Yeni Çorumspor 6 2 1 3 7
12 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 2 1 3 7
13 Genclerbirligi 6 2 1 3 7
14 Erzurum BB 6 2 1 3 7
15 Konyaspor 6 1 1 4 4
16 Samsunspor 6 1 1 4 4
17 Goztepe 6 0 3 3 3
18 Eyüpspor 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fenerbahce 6 16 6 +10 10
2 Amed 6 15 7 +8 13
3 Besiktas 6 14 7 +7 12
4 Trabzonspor 6 13 5 +8 10
5 Galatasaray 6 13 10 +3 13
6 Yeni Çorumspor 6 13 12 +1 7
7 Goztepe 6 11 15 -4 3
8 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 10 11 -1 7
9 Alanyaspor 6 8 6 +2 11
10 Kocaelispor 6 7 4 +3 12
11 Kasimpasa 6 7 5 +2 10
12 Rizespor 6 7 6 +1 10
13 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 7 7 0 8
14 Samsunspor 6 6 12 -6 4
15 Genclerbirligi 6 5 13 -8 7
16 Konyaspor 6 4 8 -4 4
17 Erzurum BB 6 3 11 -8 7
18 Eyüpspor 6 2 16 -14 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Fenerbahce 6 14.5 5.7 +8.8 10
2 Galatasaray 6 14.1 5.6 +8.5 13
3 Besiktas 6 9.1 3.0 +6.1 12
4 Amed 6 12.5 6.5 +6.0 13
5 Trabzonspor 6 12.0 10.0 +2.0 10
6 Goztepe 6 12.5 11.5 +1.0 3
7 Rizespor 6 9.3 8.7 +0.6 10
8 Alanyaspor 6 8.2 8.8 -0.6 11
9 Istanbul Basaksehir 6 7.6 8.2 -0.6 7
10 Konyaspor 6 4.7 5.8 -1.1 4
11 Kasimpasa 6 6.9 8.3 -1.4 10
12 Yeni Çorumspor 6 7.4 8.9 -1.5 7
13 Gazişehir Gaziantep 6 6.2 8.4 -2.2 8
14 Kocaelispor 6 6.0 8.4 -2.4 12
15 Samsunspor 6 7.9 10.9 -3.0 4
16 Erzurum BB 6 4.4 8.1 -3.7 7
17 Eyüpspor 6 4.8 12.2 -7.4 3
18 Genclerbirligi 6 6.5 15.5 -9.0 7
Süper Lig Turkey. Süper Lig Predictions