FBC Melgar W vs Defensores W Statistics & Analysis

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FBC Melgar W

Aug 10, 2026 - 15:00

8 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 11%

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Defensores W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 FBC Melgar W FBC Melgar W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 8-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 02:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2971853

Closing Odds 1.3

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result FBC Melgar W win · FBC Melgar W 8–0 Defensores W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Defensores W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Defensores W (1X2) by about 22.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
FBC Melgar W (1X2)	36.1	69.1	-33.0
Draw (1X2)	29.7	18.9	+10.8
Defensores W (1X2)	34.2	12.0	+22.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	66.3	-18.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	33.7	+18.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Defensores W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.0%. The difference — about 22.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
FBC Melgar W (1X2)	1.3	1.3
Draw (1X2)	4.75	4.75
Defensores W (1X2)	7.5	7.5
Over 2.5 goals	1.4	1.4
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	2.75

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FBC Melgar W; market prices FBC Melgar W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: FBC Melgar W 1.32 xG vs Defensores W 1.28 → FBC Melgar W 36.1%
Market: FBC Melgar W ~69.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	U. de Deportes W	10	9	1	0	28
2	Atl. Andahuaylas W	10	8	1	1	25
3	Sporting Cristal W	10	7	0	3	21
4	Alianza Lima W	10	6	2	2	20
5	Yanapuma W	10	5	1	4	16
6	FBC Melgar W	10	4	2	4	14
7	Flamengo FBC W	10	3	2	5	11
8	Defensores W	10	2	1	7	7
9	UNSAAC W	10	1	3	6	6
10	Killas W	10	1	2	7	5
11	Carlos Mannucci W	10	1	1	8	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	U. de Deportes W	10	55	4	+51	28
2	Sporting Cristal W	10	30	9	+21	21
3	Alianza Lima W	10	26	7	+19	20
4	Flamengo FBC W	10	16	21	-5	11
5	FBC Melgar W	10	15	14	+1	14
6	Yanapuma W	10	15	21	-6	16
7	Atl. Andahuaylas W	10	14	8	+6	25
8	Killas W	10	14	26	-12	5
9	Defensores W	10	11	29	-18	7
10	UNSAAC W	10	7	25	-18	6
11	Carlos Mannucci W	10	4	43	-39	4