Sporting Cristal W vs Yanapuma W Statistics & Analysis

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Sporting Cristal W

Jul 30, 2026 - 16:00

6 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 19%

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Yanapuma W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sporting Cristal W Sporting Cristal W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1524879

Closing Odds 1.17

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sporting Cristal W win · Sporting Cristal W 6–0 Yanapuma W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Yanapuma W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 26.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sporting Cristal W (1X2)	36.1	77.1	-41.0
Draw (1X2)	29.7	12.9	+16.8
Yanapuma W (1X2)	34.2	10.0	+24.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	75.0	-26.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	25.0	+26.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 25.0%. The difference — about 26.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sporting Cristal W (1X2)	1.17	1.17
Draw (1X2)	7.0	7.0
Yanapuma W (1X2)	9.0	9.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.25	1.25
Under 2.5 goals	3.75	3.75

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Sporting Cristal W; market prices Sporting Cristal W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Sporting Cristal W 1.32 xG vs Yanapuma W 1.28 → Sporting Cristal W 36.1%
Market: Sporting Cristal W ~77.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	U. de Deportes W	10	9	1	0	28
2	Atl. Andahuaylas W	10	8	1	1	25
3	Sporting Cristal W	10	7	0	3	21
4	Alianza Lima W	10	6	2	2	20
5	Yanapuma W	10	5	1	4	16
6	FBC Melgar W	10	4	2	4	14
7	Flamengo FBC W	10	3	2	5	11
8	Defensores W	10	2	1	7	7
9	UNSAAC W	10	1	3	6	6
10	Killas W	10	1	2	7	5
11	Carlos Mannucci W	10	1	1	8	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	U. de Deportes W	10	55	4	+51	28
2	Sporting Cristal W	10	30	9	+21	21
3	Alianza Lima W	10	26	7	+19	20
4	Flamengo FBC W	10	16	21	-5	11
5	FBC Melgar W	10	15	14	+1	14
6	Yanapuma W	10	15	21	-6	16
7	Atl. Andahuaylas W	10	14	8	+6	25
8	Killas W	10	14	26	-12	5
9	Defensores W	10	11	29	-18	7
10	UNSAAC W	10	7	25	-18	6
11	Carlos Mannucci W	10	4	43	-39	4