Statistics / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln Statistics & Analysis

Rot-Weiß Essen Rot-Weiß Essen
Oct 13, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 58%
Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rot-Weiß Essen Rot-Weiß Essen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13661574

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rot-Weiß Essen win · Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 Fortuna Köln
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-13 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Rot-Weiß Essen 1.31 — Fortuna Köln 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 9 8 0 1 24
2 FC Viktoria Köln 9 6 1 2 19
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 9 5 3 1 18
4 Hansa Rostock 9 4 3 2 15
5 FC Saarbrücken 9 4 2 3 14
6 Fortuna Düsseldorf 9 4 2 3 14
7 Hoffenheim II 9 4 1 4 13
8 Waldhof Mannheim 9 4 1 4 13
9 Preußen Münster 9 3 3 3 12
10 Verl 9 3 3 3 12
11 Stuttgart II 9 3 2 4 11
12 Alemannia Aachen 9 3 2 4 11
13 FC Ingolstadt 04 9 3 2 4 11
14 SV Wehen 9 3 2 4 11
15 Fortuna Köln 9 2 4 3 10
16 SV Meppen 9 3 1 5 10
17 SSV Jahn Regensburg 9 2 3 4 9
18 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 9 2 3 4 9
19 Würzburger Kickers 9 2 2 5 8
20 Havelse 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 9 26 11 +15 24
2 FC Viktoria Köln 9 26 13 +13 19
3 FC Saarbrücken 9 21 16 +5 14
4 SSV Jahn Regensburg 9 20 19 +1 9
5 Rot-Weiß Essen 9 18 12 +6 18
6 Hoffenheim II 9 18 14 +4 13
7 Hansa Rostock 9 17 17 0 15
8 Waldhof Mannheim 9 16 14 +2 13
9 Preußen Münster 9 16 18 -2 12
10 Stuttgart II 9 16 18 -2 11
11 Verl 9 14 17 -3 12
12 Alemannia Aachen 9 13 16 -3 11
13 Würzburger Kickers 9 13 19 -6 8
14 FC Ingolstadt 04 9 12 15 -3 11
15 SV Wehen 9 12 15 -3 11
16 Havelse 9 12 22 -10 5
17 SV Meppen 9 11 16 -5 10
18 Fortuna Düsseldorf 9 10 10 0 14
19 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 9 9 16 -7 9
20 Fortuna Köln 9 8 10 -2 10
3. Liga Germany. 3. Liga Predictions