Statistics / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II Statistics & Analysis

MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:30
3 1.79
2 1.10
xG Accuracy: 56%
Hoffenheim II Hoffenheim II
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13197311

Closing Odds 4.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result MSV Duisburg win · MSV Duisburg 3–2 Hoffenheim II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.99 percentage points on MSV Duisburg (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 3.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
MSV Duisburg (1X2) 52.1 54.2 -2.1
Draw (1X2) 26.1 22.9 +3.2
Hoffenheim II (1X2) 21.8 22.9 -1.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 26.1% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.9%. The difference — about 3.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE5 · Book: duelbits → 10bet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
MSV Duisburg (1X2) 1.69 1.73 +1.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 4.1 -0.2
Hoffenheim II (1X2) 3.8 4.1 -0.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 52.1% · Draw 26.1% · Away 21.8%
  • xG (showing): MSV Duisburg 1.79 — Hoffenheim II 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.89)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 44.8% · Implied: 36.6% · Probability edge: +8.2 pts · Est. EV: +19.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.0% · No 43.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for MSV Duisburg & Hoffenheim II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 6 0 1 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 5 0 2 15
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 4 2 1 14
4 FC Saarbrücken 7 4 1 2 13
5 Hoffenheim II 7 4 1 2 13
6 Hansa Rostock 7 3 3 1 12
7 Alemannia Aachen 7 3 2 2 11
8 Preußen Münster 7 3 2 2 11
9 Waldhof Mannheim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 3 1 3 10
11 Verl 7 3 1 3 10
12 Fortuna Köln 7 2 3 2 9
13 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 2 2 3 8
14 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 2 2 3 8
15 Stuttgart II 7 2 1 4 7
16 Würzburger Kickers 7 2 1 4 7
17 SV Meppen 7 2 0 5 6
18 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 1 2 4 5
19 SV Wehen 7 1 2 4 5
20 Havelse 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 19 7 +12 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 19 9 +10 15
3 FC Saarbrücken 7 19 12 +7 13
4 Hansa Rostock 7 15 15 0 12
5 Hoffenheim II 7 14 8 +6 13
6 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 13 9 +4 14
7 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 13 17 -4 5
8 Preußen Münster 7 12 13 -1 11
9 Stuttgart II 7 12 15 -3 7
10 Alemannia Aachen 7 11 8 +3 11
11 Waldhof Mannheim 7 11 10 +1 10
12 Würzburger Kickers 7 11 15 -4 7
13 Verl 7 10 13 -3 10
14 Havelse 7 10 15 -5 4
15 Fortuna Köln 7 8 8 0 9
16 SV Meppen 7 8 15 -7 6
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 7 11 -4 8
18 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 6 7 -1 10
19 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 6 9 -3 8
20 SV Wehen 7 5 13 -8 5
3. Liga Germany. 3. Liga Predictions