Statistics / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / Rot-Weiß Essen vs Hansa Rostock

Rot-Weiß Essen vs Hansa Rostock Statistics & Analysis

Rot-Weiß Essen Rot-Weiß Essen
Sep 20, 2026 - 11:30
1 2.05
1 1.65
xG Accuracy: 63%
Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rot-Weiß Essen Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8664468

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Rot-Weiß Essen 1–1 Hansa Rostock
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Rot-Weiß Essen (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 8.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rot-Weiß Essen (1X2) 46.3 44.7 +1.6
Draw (1X2) 23.4 24.4 -1.1
Hansa Rostock (1X2) 30.4 30.9 -0.5
Over 2.5 goals 71.5 63.2 +8.3
Under 2.5 goals 28.5 36.8 -8.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 71.5% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 63.2%. The difference — about 8.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Rot-Weiß Essen (1X2) 2.13 2.13 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
Hansa Rostock (1X2) 3.08 3.08 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.5 1.5 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.58 2.58 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Hansa Rostock
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.3% · Draw 23.4% · Away 30.4%
  • xG (showing): Rot-Weiß Essen 2.05 — Hansa Rostock 1.65 (total xG ≈ 3.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 71.5% · Implied: 62.2% · Probability edge: +9.3 pts · Est. EV: +10.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 71.5% · No 28.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 6 0 1 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 5 0 2 15
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 4 2 1 14
4 FC Saarbrücken 7 4 1 2 13
5 Hoffenheim II 7 4 1 2 13
6 Hansa Rostock 7 3 3 1 12
7 Alemannia Aachen 7 3 2 2 11
8 Preußen Münster 7 3 2 2 11
9 Waldhof Mannheim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 3 1 3 10
11 Verl 7 3 1 3 10
12 Fortuna Köln 7 2 3 2 9
13 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 2 2 3 8
14 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 2 2 3 8
15 Stuttgart II 7 2 1 4 7
16 Würzburger Kickers 7 2 1 4 7
17 SV Meppen 7 2 0 5 6
18 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 1 2 4 5
19 SV Wehen 7 1 2 4 5
20 Havelse 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 19 7 +12 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 19 9 +10 15
3 FC Saarbrücken 7 19 12 +7 13
4 Hansa Rostock 7 15 15 0 12
5 Hoffenheim II 7 14 8 +6 13
6 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 13 9 +4 14
7 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 13 17 -4 5
8 Preußen Münster 7 12 13 -1 11
9 Stuttgart II 7 12 15 -3 7
10 Alemannia Aachen 7 11 8 +3 11
11 Waldhof Mannheim 7 11 10 +1 10
12 Würzburger Kickers 7 11 15 -4 7
13 Verl 7 10 13 -3 10
14 Havelse 7 10 15 -5 4
15 Fortuna Köln 7 8 8 0 9
16 SV Meppen 7 8 15 -7 6
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 7 11 -4 8
18 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 6 7 -1 10
19 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 6 9 -3 8
20 SV Wehen 7 5 13 -8 5