Statistics / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / FC Viktoria Köln vs Hansa Rostock

FC Viktoria Köln vs Hansa Rostock Statistics & Analysis

FC Viktoria Köln FC Viktoria Köln
Sep 11, 2026 - 17:00
4 1.60
0 1.48
xG Accuracy: 34%
Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Viktoria Köln FC Viktoria Köln ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7034239

Closing Odds 2.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC Viktoria Köln win · FC Viktoria Köln 4–0 Hansa Rostock
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.04 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FC Viktoria Köln (1X2) by about 5.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Viktoria Köln (1X2) 39.2 33.3 +5.9
Draw (1X2) 26.8 25.4 +1.3
Hansa Rostock (1X2) 34.0 41.3 -7.2
Over 2.5 goals 59.5 63.0 -3.5
Under 2.5 goals 40.6 37.0 +3.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.2% on FC Viktoria Köln (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.3%. The difference — about 5.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Viktoria Köln (1X2) 2.89 2.86 +0.4
Draw (1X2) 3.64 3.75 -0.8
Hansa Rostock (1X2) 2.33 2.31 +0.4
Over 2.5 goals 1.59 1.51 +3.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.38 2.57 -3.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: FC Viktoria Köln vs Hansa Rostock
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.2% · Draw 26.8% · Away 34.0%
  • xG (showing): FC Viktoria Köln 1.6 — Hansa Rostock 1.48 (total xG ≈ 3.08)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 40.6% · Implied: 38.5% · Probability edge: +2.1 pts · Est. EV: +4.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.1% · No 36.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 6 0 1 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 5 0 2 15
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 4 2 1 14
4 FC Saarbrücken 7 4 1 2 13
5 Hoffenheim II 7 4 1 2 13
6 Hansa Rostock 7 3 3 1 12
7 Alemannia Aachen 7 3 2 2 11
8 Preußen Münster 7 3 2 2 11
9 Waldhof Mannheim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 3 1 3 10
11 Verl 7 3 1 3 10
12 Fortuna Köln 7 2 3 2 9
13 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 2 2 3 8
14 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 2 2 3 8
15 Stuttgart II 7 2 1 4 7
16 Würzburger Kickers 7 2 1 4 7
17 SV Meppen 7 2 0 5 6
18 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 1 2 4 5
19 SV Wehen 7 1 2 4 5
20 Havelse 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 MSV Duisburg 7 19 7 +12 18
2 FC Viktoria Köln 7 19 9 +10 15
3 FC Saarbrücken 7 19 12 +7 13
4 Hansa Rostock 7 15 15 0 12
5 Hoffenheim II 7 14 8 +6 13
6 Rot-Weiß Essen 7 13 9 +4 14
7 SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 13 17 -4 5
8 Preußen Münster 7 12 13 -1 11
9 Stuttgart II 7 12 15 -3 7
10 Alemannia Aachen 7 11 8 +3 11
11 Waldhof Mannheim 7 11 10 +1 10
12 Würzburger Kickers 7 11 15 -4 7
13 Verl 7 10 13 -3 10
14 Havelse 7 10 15 -5 4
15 Fortuna Köln 7 8 8 0 9
16 SV Meppen 7 8 15 -7 6
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 7 7 11 -4 8
18 Fortuna Düsseldorf 7 6 7 -1 10
19 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 6 9 -3 8
20 SV Wehen 7 5 13 -8 5