Statistics / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Gold / FK Sokol Saratov vs Dinamo Bryansk

FK Sokol Saratov vs Dinamo Bryansk Statistics & Analysis

FK Sokol Saratov FK Sokol Saratov
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
Dinamo Bryansk Dinamo Bryansk
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Sokol Saratov Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6147906

Closing Odds 2.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · FK Sokol Saratov 2–2 Dinamo Bryansk
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices FK Sokol Saratov (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 2.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FK Sokol Saratov (1X2) 36.1 35.0 +1.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 26.9 +2.8
Dinamo Bryansk (1X2) 34.2 38.1 -3.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.6 -1.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.4 +1.4
BTTS Yes 54.5 54.2 +0.3
BTTS No 45.5 45.8 -0.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.9%. The difference — about 2.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FK Sokol Saratov (1X2) 2.57 2.57 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.34 3.34 0.0
Dinamo Bryansk (1X2) 2.36 2.36 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.86 1.86 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.68 1.68 0.0
BTTS No 1.99 1.99 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Second League A - Division A Gold
  • Fixture: FK Sokol Saratov vs Dinamo Bryansk
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): FK Sokol Saratov 1.32 — Dinamo Bryansk 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League A - Division A Gold Second League A - Division A Gold — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Kirov 11 7 2 2 23
2 Rodina Moskva II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Dinamo Bryansk 11 4 4 3 16
4 Novosibirsk 11 4 3 4 15
5 Dinamo Vladivostok 11 3 4 4 13
6 Mashuk-KMV 11 2 7 2 13
7 Alaniya Vladikavkaz 11 2 6 3 12
8 Volgar Astrakhan 11 1 8 2 11
9 FK Sokol Saratov 11 1 6 4 9
10 Kaluga 11 0 6 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rodina Moskva II 11 20 10 +10 23
2 Novosibirsk 11 15 14 +1 15
3 Alaniya Vladikavkaz 11 14 12 +2 12
4 Dinamo Kirov 11 13 8 +5 23
5 Volgar Astrakhan 11 12 13 -1 11
6 Dinamo Bryansk 11 11 13 -2 16
7 FK Sokol Saratov 11 10 17 -7 9
8 Mashuk-KMV 11 8 8 0 13
9 Dinamo Vladivostok 11 8 9 -1 13
10 Kaluga 11 6 13 -7 6
Second League A - Division A Gold Russia. Second League A - Division A Gold Predictions