Sporting San Miguelito vs Union Cocle Statistics & Analysis

Sporting San Miguelito

Oct 06, 2026 - 01:00

3 1.36

1 1.24

xG Accuracy: 60%

⚽

Union Cocle

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sporting San Miguelito Sporting San Miguelito ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11908838

Closing Odds 1.95

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sporting San Miguelito win · Sporting San Miguelito 3–1 Union Cocle

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.55 percentage points on Sporting San Miguelito (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Union Cocle (1X2) by about 6.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sporting San Miguelito (1X2)	38.0	46.0	-7.9
Draw (1X2)	29.6	28.4	+1.1
Union Cocle (1X2)	32.4	25.6	+6.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Union Cocle (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.6%. The difference — about 6.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings → kto br

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Sporting San Miguelito (1X2)	1.86	1.95	-3.5
Draw (1X2)	3.35	3.15	+1.0
Union Cocle (1X2)	4.0	3.5	+2.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Panameña de Fútbol
Fixture: Sporting San Miguelito vs Union Cocle
Kickoff: 2026-10-06 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Sporting San Miguelito 1.36 — Union Cocle 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 47.4% · Probability edge: +7.0 pts · Est. EV: +6.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Sporting San Miguelito & Union Cocle!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Liga Panameña de Fútbol — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	16	9	4	3	31
2	Alianza FC	16	6	9	1	27
3	UMECIT	16	6	7	3	25
4	Veraguas	16	7	4	5	25
5	Union Cocle	16	5	8	3	23
6	Tauro FC	16	5	6	5	21
7	CD Arabe Unido	16	6	3	7	21
8	Independiente de La Chorrera	16	4	8	4	20
9	San Francisco FC	16	5	5	6	20
10	Sporting San Miguelito	16	4	6	6	18
11	Deportivo Universitario	16	3	5	8	14
12	Herrera	16	1	5	10	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	16	28	16	+12	31
2	UMECIT	16	28	20	+8	25
3	Alianza FC	16	26	20	+6	27
4	Veraguas	16	26	23	+3	25
5	Tauro FC	16	22	19	+3	21
6	San Francisco FC	16	22	25	-3	20
7	Sporting San Miguelito	16	19	21	-2	18
8	Deportivo Universitario	16	19	27	-8	14
9	Independiente de La Chorrera	16	18	14	+4	20
10	Union Cocle	16	16	11	+5	23
11	CD Arabe Unido	16	16	20	-4	21
12	Herrera	16	13	37	-24	8