Union Cocle vs Plaza Amador Statistics & Analysis

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Union Cocle

Sep 27, 2026 - 21:00

1 1.18

2 1.42

xG Accuracy: 81%

Plaza Amador

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Plaza Amador Plaza Amador ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10112170

Closing Odds 1.62

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Plaza Amador win · Union Cocle 1–2 Plaza Amador

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Union Cocle (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Union Cocle (1X2) by about 10.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Union Cocle (1X2)	29.6	18.8	+10.9
Draw (1X2)	29.4	24.8	+4.6
Plaza Amador (1X2)	41.0	56.4	-15.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	50.4	-2.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	49.6	+2.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Union Cocle (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.8%. The difference — about 10.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Union Cocle (1X2)	4.87	4.87
Draw (1X2)	3.69	3.69
Plaza Amador (1X2)	1.62	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	1.88	1.88
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	1.91

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Panameña de Fútbol
Fixture: Union Cocle vs Plaza Amador
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
xG (showing): Union Cocle 1.18 — Plaza Amador 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Panameña de Fútbol — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	16	9	4	3	31
2	Alianza FC	16	6	9	1	27
3	UMECIT	16	6	7	3	25
4	Veraguas	16	7	4	5	25
5	Union Cocle	16	5	8	3	23
6	Tauro FC	16	5	6	5	21
7	CD Arabe Unido	16	6	3	7	21
8	Independiente de La Chorrera	16	4	8	4	20
9	San Francisco FC	16	5	5	6	20
10	Sporting San Miguelito	16	4	6	6	18
11	Deportivo Universitario	16	3	5	8	14
12	Herrera	16	1	5	10	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Plaza Amador	16	28	16	+12	31
2	UMECIT	16	28	20	+8	25
3	Alianza FC	16	26	20	+6	27
4	Veraguas	16	26	23	+3	25
5	Tauro FC	16	22	19	+3	21
6	San Francisco FC	16	22	25	-3	20
7	Sporting San Miguelito	16	19	21	-2	18
8	Deportivo Universitario	16	19	27	-8	14
9	Independiente de La Chorrera	16	18	14	+4	20
10	Union Cocle	16	16	11	+5	23
11	CD Arabe Unido	16	16	20	-4	21
12	Herrera	16	13	37	-24	8