Statistics / Football / Panama. Liga Panameña de Fútbol / Herrera vs UMECIT

Herrera vs UMECIT Statistics & Analysis

Herrera Herrera
Sep 13, 2026 - 21:00
1 1.23
3 1.37
xG Accuracy: 60%
UMECIT UMECIT
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 UMECIT UMECIT ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 07:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7491718

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result UMECIT win · Herrera 1–3 UMECIT
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Herrera (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Herrera (1X2) by about 5.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Herrera (1X2) 31.9 27.0 +5.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 27.3 +2.3
UMECIT (1X2) 38.5 45.7 -7.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 43.4 +4.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 56.6 -4.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Herrera (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.0%. The difference — about 5.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Herrera (1X2) 3.44 3.44 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
UMECIT (1X2) 2.03 2.03 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.18 2.18 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.67 1.67 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Panameña de Fútbol
  • Fixture: Herrera vs UMECIT
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Herrera 1.23 — UMECIT 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.1% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Panameña de Fútbol Liga Panameña de Fútbol — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Plaza Amador 16 9 4 3 31
2 Alianza FC 16 6 9 1 27
3 UMECIT 16 6 7 3 25
4 Veraguas 16 7 4 5 25
5 Union Cocle 16 5 8 3 23
6 Tauro FC 16 5 6 5 21
7 CD Arabe Unido 16 6 3 7 21
8 Independiente de La Chorrera 16 4 8 4 20
9 San Francisco FC 16 5 5 6 20
10 Sporting San Miguelito 16 4 6 6 18
11 Deportivo Universitario 16 3 5 8 14
12 Herrera 16 1 5 10 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Plaza Amador 16 28 16 +12 31
2 UMECIT 16 28 20 +8 25
3 Alianza FC 16 26 20 +6 27
4 Veraguas 16 26 23 +3 25
5 Tauro FC 16 22 19 +3 21
6 San Francisco FC 16 22 25 -3 20
7 Sporting San Miguelito 16 19 21 -2 18
8 Deportivo Universitario 16 19 27 -8 14
9 Independiente de La Chorrera 16 18 14 +4 20
10 Union Cocle 16 16 11 +5 23
11 CD Arabe Unido 16 16 20 -4 21
12 Herrera 16 13 37 -24 8
Liga Panameña de Fútbol Panama. Liga Panameña de Fútbol Predictions