FC St. Pauli vs HNK Gorica Statistics & Analysis

FC St. Pauli

Jul 19, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.43

1 1.17

xG Accuracy: 82%

HNK Gorica

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1636583

Closing Odds 1.55

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result FC St. Pauli win · FC St. Pauli 2–1 HNK Gorica

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.52 percentage points on FC St. Pauli (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on HNK Gorica (1X2) by about 8.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
FC St. Pauli (1X2)	44.7	58.1	-13.4
Draw (1X2)	28.0	22.7	+5.4
HNK Gorica (1X2)	27.3	19.3	+8.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	55.5	-7.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	44.5	+7.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.3% on HNK Gorica (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.3%. The difference — about 8.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
FC St. Pauli (1X2)	1.66	1.55	+4.5
Draw (1X2)	3.71	3.97	-1.3
HNK Gorica (1X2)	3.95	4.67	-3.2
Over 2.5 goals	1.61	1.67	-1.7
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	2.08	+1.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Club Friendlies
Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs HNK Gorica
Kickoff: 2026-07-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 44.7% · Draw 28.0% · Away 27.3%
xG (showing): FC St. Pauli 1.43 — HNK Gorica 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.2% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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