Statistics / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Fluminense vs Bahia

Fluminense vs Bahia Statistics & Analysis

Fluminense Fluminense
Jul 12, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Bahia Bahia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fluminense Fluminense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2186685

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fluminense win · Fluminense 2–0 Bahia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Fluminense vs Bahia
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-12 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.9% · Draw 29.4% · Away 32.8%
  • xG (showing): Fluminense 1.32 — Bahia 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 47.5% · Probability edge: +7.0 pts · Est. EV: +7.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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