Statistics / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Vendsyssel FF vs Vejgaard B

Vendsyssel FF vs Vejgaard B Statistics & Analysis

Vendsyssel FF Vendsyssel FF
Jul 12, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 59%
Vejgaard B Vejgaard B
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vendsyssel FF Vendsyssel FF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1506966

Closing Odds 1.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vendsyssel FF win · Vendsyssel FF 3–1 Vejgaard B
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Vejgaard B (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Vejgaard B (1X2) by about 15.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Vendsyssel FF (1X2) 50.0 76.6 -26.6
Draw (1X2) 26.1 14.4 +11.6
Vejgaard B (1X2) 23.9 8.9 +15.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.9% on Vejgaard B (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.9%. The difference — about 15.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Vendsyssel FF (1X2) 1.16 1.16 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.15 6.15 0.0
Vejgaard B (1X2) 9.96 9.96 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Vendsyssel FF vs Vejgaard B
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-12 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 26.1% · Away 23.9%
  • xG (showing): Vendsyssel FF 1.33 — Vejgaard B 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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