Longridge Town vs Bolton Statistics & Analysis

Longridge Town

Jul 11, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.17

4 1.43

xG Accuracy: 36%

Bolton

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Bolton Bolton ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1623795

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Bolton win · Longridge Town 0–4 Bolton

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Longridge Town vs Bolton
Kickoff: 2026-07-11 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
xG (showing): Longridge Town 1.17 — Bolton 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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