Čelik vs FK Sarajevo Statistics & Analysis

Čelik

Oct 11, 2026 - 16:30

0 1.18

0 1.42

xG Accuracy: 49%

FK Sarajevo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 FK Sarajevo Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13238867

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Čelik 0–0 FK Sarajevo

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premijer Liga
Fixture: Čelik vs FK Sarajevo
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
xG (showing): Čelik 1.18 — FK Sarajevo 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.1% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +6.2 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premijer Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Zrinjski	8	7	0	1	21
2	Borac Banja Luka	8	6	1	1	19
3	FK Sarajevo	8	4	1	3	13
4	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	8	3	3	2	12
5	Siroki Brijeg	8	2	3	3	9
6	Sloga Doboj	8	2	3	3	9
7	Čelik	8	2	2	4	8
8	BSK Banja Luka	8	2	2	4	8
9	Velež	8	2	1	5	7
10	Radnik Bijeljina	8	0	4	4	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Zrinjski	8	17	5	+12	21
2	Borac Banja Luka	8	15	7	+8	19
3	BSK Banja Luka	8	12	14	-2	8
4	Radnik Bijeljina	8	12	19	-7	4
5	Čelik	8	11	12	-1	8
6	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	8	10	9	+1	12
7	Siroki Brijeg	8	10	11	-1	9
8	FK Sarajevo	8	6	5	+1	13
9	Velež	8	6	14	-8	7
10	Sloga Doboj	8	5	8	-3	9