Statistics / Football / Bosnia. Premijer Liga / Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik Statistics & Analysis

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Sep 18, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 85%
Čelik Čelik
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8698264

Closing Odds 2.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–1 Čelik
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Čelik (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Čelik (1X2) by about 7.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (1X2) 37.6 44.9 -7.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.4 +0.1
Čelik (1X2) 32.9 25.6 +7.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.0 +4.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 56.0 -4.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on Čelik (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.6%. The difference — about 7.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (1X2) 2.04 2.04 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.11 3.11 0.0
Čelik (1X2) 3.57 3.57 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.14 2.14 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premijer Liga
  • Fixture: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.35 — Čelik 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 50.0% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo & Čelik!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Premijer Liga Premijer Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zrinjski 8 7 0 1 21
2 Borac Banja Luka 8 6 1 1 19
3 FK Sarajevo 8 4 1 3 13
4 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 8 3 3 2 12
5 Siroki Brijeg 8 2 3 3 9
6 Sloga Doboj 8 2 3 3 9
7 Čelik 8 2 2 4 8
8 BSK Banja Luka 8 2 2 4 8
9 Velež 8 2 1 5 7
10 Radnik Bijeljina 8 0 4 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zrinjski 8 17 5 +12 21
2 Borac Banja Luka 8 15 7 +8 19
3 BSK Banja Luka 8 12 14 -2 8
4 Radnik Bijeljina 8 12 19 -7 4
5 Čelik 8 11 12 -1 8
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 8 10 9 +1 12
7 Siroki Brijeg 8 10 11 -1 9
8 FK Sarajevo 8 6 5 +1 13
9 Velež 8 6 14 -8 7
10 Sloga Doboj 8 5 8 -3 9