Nelson Suburbs vs Auckland United Statistics & Analysis

Nelson Suburbs

Jul 26, 2026 - 01:30

2 1.30

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 76%

Auckland United

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Auckland United Nelson Suburbs ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453981

Closing Odds 4.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Nelson Suburbs win · Nelson Suburbs 2–1 Auckland United

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 6.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Nelson Suburbs (1X2)	35.6	37.3	-1.7
Draw (1X2)	27.5	20.7	+6.8
Auckland United (1X2)	36.9	42.0	-5.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.5% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.7%. The difference — about 6.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Nelson Suburbs (1X2)	2.37	2.37
Draw (1X2)	4.27	4.27
Auckland United (1X2)	2.1	2.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Chatham Cup
Fixture: Nelson Suburbs vs Auckland United
Kickoff: 2026-07-26 01:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 27.5% · Away 36.9%
xG (showing): Nelson Suburbs 1.3 — Auckland United 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 30.3% · Probability edge: +21.5 pts · Est. EV: +65.8%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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