Statistics / Football / World. UEFA U19 Championship - Women / Germany U19 W vs Spain U19 W

Germany U19 W vs Spain U19 W Statistics & Analysis

Germany U19 W Germany U19 W
Jul 10, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 64%
Spain U19 W Spain U19 W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Spain U19 W Spain U19 W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 04:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2491013

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Spain U19 W win · Germany U19 W 0–1 Spain U19 W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Germany U19 W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Germany U19 W (1X2) by about 20.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Germany U19 W (1X2) 31.0 10.8 +20.2
Draw (1X2) 29.5 18.4 +11.0
Spain U19 W (1X2) 39.5 70.7 -31.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 56.9 -8.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.1 +8.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Germany U19 W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.8%. The difference — about 20.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Germany U19 W (1X2) 8.23 8.23 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.83 4.83 0.0
Spain U19 W (1X2) 1.26 1.26 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.14 2.14 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Spain U19 W; market prices Spain U19 W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Germany U19 W 1.21 xG vs Spain U19 W 1.39 → Spain U19 W 39.5%
  • Market: Spain U19 W ~70.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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