Nova Lavras vs Santarritense Statistics & Analysis

⚽

Nova Lavras

Oct 10, 2026 - 19:00

13 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 3%

⚽

Santarritense

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (13 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Nova Lavras Nova Lavras ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 13-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13250395

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Nova Lavras win · Nova Lavras 13–0 Santarritense

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Mineiro - 3
Fixture: Nova Lavras vs Santarritense
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Nova Lavras 1.32 — Santarritense 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Mineiro - 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Venda Nova	4	3	1	0	10
1	Betim 2	4	4	0	0	12
2	Nacional AC MG	4	3	0	1	9
2	Paracatu	4	3	0	1	9
3	Novo Esporte Clube	4	2	1	1	7
3	Sao Joao del Rei	4	2	0	2	6
4	Nova Lavras	4	2	0	2	6
4	Funorte	4	1	1	2	4
5	Inter de Minas	4	1	0	3	3
5	Araxá	4	1	0	3	3
6	Santarritense	4	0	0	4	0
6	Siderurgica	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Nova Lavras	4	18	4	+14	6
2	Venda Nova	4	13	1	+12	10
3	Paracatu	4	10	2	+8	9
4	Inter de Minas	4	8	7	+1	3
5	Betim 2	4	6	0	+6	12
6	Nacional AC MG	4	6	2	+4	9
7	Araxá	4	4	5	-1	3
8	Sao Joao del Rei	4	3	2	+1	6
9	Novo Esporte Clube	4	3	4	-1	7
10	Funorte	4	3	8	-5	4
11	Siderurgica	4	2	11	-9	1
12	Santarritense	4	1	31	-30	0