Statistics / Football / Brazil. Mineiro - 3 / Siderurgica vs Araxá

Siderurgica vs Araxá Statistics & Analysis

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Siderurgica
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Araxá Araxá
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Siderurgica Araxá ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11258441

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Araxá win · Siderurgica 0–3 Araxá
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Mineiro - 3
  • Fixture: Siderurgica vs Araxá
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Siderurgica 1.32 — Araxá 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Mineiro - 3 Mineiro - 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Venda Nova 4 3 1 0 10
1 Betim 2 4 4 0 0 12
2 Nacional AC MG 4 3 0 1 9
2 Paracatu 4 3 0 1 9
3 Novo Esporte Clube 4 2 1 1 7
3 Sao Joao del Rei 4 2 0 2 6
4 Nova Lavras 4 2 0 2 6
4 Funorte 4 1 1 2 4
5 Inter de Minas 4 1 0 3 3
5 Araxá 4 1 0 3 3
6 Santarritense 4 0 0 4 0
6 Siderurgica 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nova Lavras 4 18 4 +14 6
2 Venda Nova 4 13 1 +12 10
3 Paracatu 4 10 2 +8 9
4 Inter de Minas 4 8 7 +1 3
5 Betim 2 4 6 0 +6 12
6 Nacional AC MG 4 6 2 +4 9
7 Araxá 4 4 5 -1 3
8 Sao Joao del Rei 4 3 2 +1 6
9 Novo Esporte Clube 4 3 4 -1 7
10 Funorte 4 3 8 -5 4
11 Siderurgica 4 2 11 -9 1
12 Santarritense 4 1 31 -30 0
Mineiro - 3 Brazil. Mineiro - 3 Predictions