Santarritense vs Venda Nova Statistics & Analysis

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Santarritense

Sep 27, 2026 - 19:00

0 1.32

8 1.28

xG Accuracy: 11%

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Venda Nova

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Santarritense Venda Nova ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-8 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10110709

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Venda Nova win · Santarritense 0–8 Venda Nova

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Mineiro - 3
Fixture: Santarritense vs Venda Nova
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Santarritense 1.32 — Venda Nova 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Mineiro - 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	L	PTS
1	Venda Nova	2	2	0	6
1	Paracatu	2	2	0	6
2	Nacional AC MG	2	2	0	6
2	Betim 2	2	2	0	6
3	Nova Lavras	2	1	1	3
3	Funorte	2	1	1	3
4	Novo Esporte Clube	2	1	1	3
4	Sao Joao del Rei	2	1	1	3
5	Inter de Minas	2	0	2	0
5	Araxá	2	0	2	0
6	Santarritense	2	0	2	0
6	Siderurgica	2	0	2	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Venda Nova	2	10	1	+9	6
2	Paracatu	2	7	1	+6	6
3	Nacional AC MG	2	4	0	+4	6
4	Betim 2	2	4	0	+4	6
5	Nova Lavras	2	4	2	+2	3
6	Sao Joao del Rei	2	2	1	+1	3
7	Novo Esporte Clube	2	2	4	-2	3
8	Funorte	2	1	3	-2	3
9	Inter de Minas	2	1	3	-2	0
10	Araxá	2	1	4	-3	0
11	Siderurgica	2	0	6	-6	0
12	Santarritense	2	0	11	-11	0