Statistics / Football / Brazil. Mineiro - 3 / Venda Nova vs Nova Lavras

Venda Nova vs Nova Lavras Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Venda Nova
Sep 19, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 77%
⚽
Nova Lavras
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Venda Nova Venda Nova ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8672621

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Venda Nova win · Venda Nova 2–1 Nova Lavras
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Mineiro - 3
  • Fixture: Venda Nova vs Nova Lavras
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Venda Nova 1.32 — Nova Lavras 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Mineiro - 3 Mineiro - 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Venda Nova 2 2 0 0 6
1 Paracatu 2 2 0 0 6
2 Nacional AC MG 2 2 0 0 6
2 Betim 2 2 2 0 0 6
3 Nova Lavras 2 1 0 1 3
3 Funorte 2 1 0 1 3
4 Novo Esporte Clube 2 1 0 1 3
4 Sao Joao del Rei 2 1 0 1 3
5 Inter de Minas 2 0 0 2 0
5 Araxá 2 0 0 2 0
6 Santarritense 2 0 0 2 0
6 Siderurgica 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Venda Nova 2 10 1 +9 6
2 Paracatu 2 7 1 +6 6
3 Nacional AC MG 2 4 0 +4 6
4 Betim 2 2 4 0 +4 6
5 Nova Lavras 2 4 2 +2 3
6 Sao Joao del Rei 2 2 1 +1 3
7 Novo Esporte Clube 2 2 4 -2 3
8 Funorte 2 1 3 -2 3
9 Inter de Minas 2 1 3 -2 0
10 Araxá 2 1 4 -3 0
11 Siderurgica 2 0 6 -6 0
12 Santarritense 2 0 11 -11 0
Mineiro - 3 Brazil. Mineiro - 3 Predictions