Inter Milano W vs Napoli W Statistics & Analysis

Inter Milano W

Aug 30, 2026 - 16:00

6 1.37

0 1.23

xG Accuracy: 20%

Napoli W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Inter Milano W Inter Milano W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5300009

Closing Odds 1.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Inter Milano W win · Inter Milano W 6–0 Napoli W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Napoli W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Napoli W (1X2) by about 12.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Inter Milano W (1X2)	38.5	56.6	-18.1
Draw (1X2)	29.6	23.4	+6.1
Napoli W (1X2)	31.9	20.0	+12.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	57.1	-8.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.9	+8.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Napoli W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.0%. The difference — about 12.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Inter Milano W (1X2)	1.6	1.6
Draw (1X2)	3.86	3.86
Napoli W (1X2)	4.53	4.53
Over 2.5 goals	1.63	1.63
Under 2.5 goals	2.17	2.17

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie A Cup Women
Fixture: Inter Milano W vs Napoli W
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Inter Milano W 1.37 — Napoli W 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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