Roma W vs Sassuolo W Statistics & Analysis

Roma W

Aug 30, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.39

1 1.21

xG Accuracy: 64%

Sassuolo W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Roma W Sassuolo W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5299992

Closing Odds 1.23

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sassuolo W win · Roma W 0–1 Sassuolo W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sassuolo W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sassuolo W (1X2) by about 20.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Roma W (1X2)	39.5	73.4	-34.0
Draw (1X2)	29.5	16.2	+13.2
Sassuolo W (1X2)	31.0	10.3	+20.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	63.7	-15.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	36.3	+15.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Sassuolo W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.3%. The difference — about 20.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Roma W (1X2)	1.23	1.23
Draw (1X2)	5.56	5.56
Sassuolo W (1X2)	8.76	8.76
Over 2.5 goals	1.44	1.44
Under 2.5 goals	2.53	2.53

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Roma W; market prices Roma W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Roma W 1.39 xG vs Sassuolo W 1.21 → Roma W 39.5%
Market: Roma W ~73.4% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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