Statistics / Football / Malta. Premier League / Mosta vs Birzebbuga

Mosta vs Birzebbuga Statistics & Analysis

Mosta Mosta
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 68%
Birzebbuga Birzebbuga
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Birzebbuga Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12703139

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mosta 2–2 Birzebbuga
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Mosta vs Birzebbuga
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Mosta 1.27 — Birzebbuga 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.9% · Probability edge: +5.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Floriana 6 4 1 1 13
2 Valletta FC 6 4 1 1 13
3 Marsaxlokk 6 3 2 1 11
4 Birkirkara 6 3 1 2 10
5 Hamrun Spartans 6 3 1 2 10
6 Mosta 5 3 1 1 10
7 Sliema Wanderers 6 3 1 2 10
8 Balzan FC 6 2 3 1 9
9 Zabbar St. Patrick 6 1 2 3 5
10 Hibernians 6 1 2 3 5
11 Gzira United 5 0 1 4 1
12 Birzebbuga 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Floriana 6 16 7 +9 13
2 Valletta FC 6 15 6 +9 13
3 Marsaxlokk 6 11 9 +2 11
4 Birkirkara 6 9 4 +5 10
5 Hamrun Spartans 6 9 6 +3 10
6 Balzan FC 6 9 6 +3 9
7 Mosta 5 7 5 +2 10
8 Sliema Wanderers 6 7 7 0 10
9 Zabbar St. Patrick 6 5 9 -4 5
10 Hibernians 6 4 9 -5 5
11 Gzira United 5 2 13 -11 1
12 Birzebbuga 6 1 14 -13 0
Premier League Malta. Premier League Predictions