Statistics / Football / Malta. Premier League / Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk

Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk Statistics & Analysis

Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans
Sep 18, 2026 - 18:30
4 1.47
1 1.13
xG Accuracy: 48%
Marsaxlokk Marsaxlokk
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8229428

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Hamrun Spartans win · Hamrun Spartans 4–1 Marsaxlokk
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 5.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Hamrun Spartans (1X2) 43.3 47.1 -3.8
Draw (1X2) 29.2 26.2 +3.0
Marsaxlokk (1X2) 27.5 26.7 +0.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.1 -5.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.9 +5.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.9%. The difference — about 5.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Hamrun Spartans (1X2) 1.92 1.92 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.45 3.45 0.0
Marsaxlokk (1X2) 3.39 3.39 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.72 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.03 2.03 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Hamrun Spartans vs Marsaxlokk
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
  • xG (showing): Hamrun Spartans 1.47 — Marsaxlokk 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.2% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +4.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Floriana 6 4 1 1 13
2 Valletta FC 6 4 1 1 13
3 Marsaxlokk 6 3 2 1 11
4 Birkirkara 6 3 1 2 10
5 Hamrun Spartans 6 3 1 2 10
6 Mosta 5 3 1 1 10
7 Sliema Wanderers 6 3 1 2 10
8 Balzan FC 6 2 3 1 9
9 Zabbar St. Patrick 6 1 2 3 5
10 Hibernians 6 1 2 3 5
11 Gzira United 5 0 1 4 1
12 Birzebbuga 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Floriana 6 16 7 +9 13
2 Valletta FC 6 15 6 +9 13
3 Marsaxlokk 6 11 9 +2 11
4 Birkirkara 6 9 4 +5 10
5 Hamrun Spartans 6 9 6 +3 10
6 Balzan FC 6 9 6 +3 9
7 Mosta 5 7 5 +2 10
8 Sliema Wanderers 6 7 7 0 10
9 Zabbar St. Patrick 6 5 9 -4 5
10 Hibernians 6 4 9 -5 5
11 Gzira United 5 2 13 -11 1
12 Birzebbuga 6 1 14 -13 0