Statistics / Football / Germany. DFB Junioren Pokal / Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 Statistics & Analysis

Borussia Dortmund U19 Borussia Dortmund U19
Aug 01, 2026 - 09:00
3 1.40
4 1.20
xG Accuracy: 30%
Holstein Kiel U19 Holstein Kiel U19
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Borussia Dortmund U19 Holstein Kiel U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1786384

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Holstein Kiel U19 win · Borussia Dortmund U19 3–4 Holstein Kiel U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: DFB Junioren Pokal
  • Fixture: Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Borussia Dortmund U19 1.4 — Holstein Kiel U19 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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