Statistics / Football / Denmark. Kvindeliga / ASA Aarhus W vs Midtjylland W

ASA Aarhus W vs Midtjylland W Statistics & Analysis

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ASA Aarhus W
Oct 03, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.36
0 1.24
xG Accuracy: 64%
Midtjylland W Midtjylland W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ASA Aarhus W ASA Aarhus W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11221679

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ASA Aarhus W win · ASA Aarhus W 1–0 Midtjylland W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Kvindeliga
  • Fixture: ASA Aarhus W vs Midtjylland W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): ASA Aarhus W 1.36 — Midtjylland W 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Kvindeliga Kvindeliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Køge 10 8 1 1 25
2 Nordsjælland 10 6 3 1 21
3 Brøndby 10 6 2 2 20
4 Fortuna Hjørring 10 5 2 3 17
5 Midtjylland W 10 5 2 3 17
6 ASA Aarhus W 10 4 1 5 13
7 KoldingQ 10 4 0 6 12
8 Odense Q 10 3 1 6 10
9 FC Copenhagen W 10 2 0 8 6
10 AGF 10 1 0 9 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nordsjælland 10 32 12 +20 21
2 Køge 10 30 11 +19 25
3 Brøndby 10 25 8 +17 20
4 Fortuna Hjørring 10 23 12 +11 17
5 KoldingQ 10 20 29 -9 12
6 Midtjylland W 10 15 13 +2 17
7 ASA Aarhus W 10 12 19 -7 13
8 FC Copenhagen W 10 12 33 -21 6
9 AGF 10 7 24 -17 3
10 Odense Q 10 6 21 -15 10