Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / Polissya II vs Kulykiv

Polissya II vs Kulykiv Statistics & Analysis

Polissya II Polissya II
Oct 12, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 39%
Kulykiv Kulykiv
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Polissya II Kulykiv ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13663553

Closing Odds 2.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kulykiv win · Polissya II 2–4 Kulykiv
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Polissya II (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Polissya II (1X2) by about 4.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Polissya II (1X2) 36.1 31.7 +4.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 26.9 +2.7
Kulykiv (1X2) 34.2 41.3 -7.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Polissya II (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.7%. The difference — about 4.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: betmgm us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Polissya II (1X2) 2.8 2.8 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Kulykiv (1X2) 2.15 2.15 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: Polissya II vs Kulykiv
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-12 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Polissya II 1.32 — Kulykiv 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Polissya II & Kulykiv!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 11 6 3 2 21
2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 11 6 2 3 20
3 Oleksandria 11 5 4 2 19
4 SK Poltava 11 5 3 3 18
5 Yarud Mariupol' 11 5 3 3 18
6 Kulykiv 10 5 2 3 17
7 Lokomotiv Kyiv 11 4 4 3 16
8 Prykarpattia 11 4 3 4 15
9 Metal Kharkiv 11 4 3 4 15
10 Nyva Ternopil 11 3 5 3 14
11 Inhulets 10 4 2 4 14
12 Kolos Kovalivka II 11 4 0 7 12
13 Chernihiv 10 2 4 4 10
14 UCSA 11 2 4 5 10
15 Probiy Horodenka 11 2 2 7 8
16 Polissya II 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kulykiv 10 20 11 +9 17
2 SK Poltava 11 18 10 +8 18
3 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 11 18 14 +4 20
4 Oleksandria 11 16 10 +6 19
5 Lokomotiv Kyiv 11 15 13 +2 16
6 UCSA 11 15 19 -4 10
7 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 11 14 8 +6 21
8 Yarud Mariupol' 11 14 12 +2 18
9 Polissya II 10 14 20 -6 7
10 Metal Kharkiv 11 13 13 0 15
11 Prykarpattia 11 12 10 +2 15
12 Nyva Ternopil 11 12 10 +2 14
13 Kolos Kovalivka II 11 12 20 -8 12
14 Chernihiv 10 11 14 -3 10
15 Probiy Horodenka 11 11 29 -18 8
16 Inhulets 10 10 12 -2 14
Persha Liga Ukraine. Persha Liga Predictions