Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'

UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' Statistics & Analysis

UCSA UCSA
Oct 11, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.20
2 1.40
xG Accuracy: 80%
Yarud Mariupol' Yarud Mariupol'
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yarud Mariupol' Yarud Mariupol' ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13188560

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Yarud Mariupol' win · UCSA 1–2 Yarud Mariupol'
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices UCSA (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on UCSA (1X2) by about 8.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
UCSA (1X2) 30.6 22.2 +8.3
Draw (1X2) 29.5 26.9 +2.5
Yarud Mariupol' (1X2) 40.0 50.8 -10.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.6% on UCSA (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.2%. The difference — about 8.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: betmgm us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
UCSA (1X2) 4.0 4.0 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Yarud Mariupol' (1X2) 1.75 1.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): UCSA 1.2 — Yarud Mariupol' 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.3% · Implied: 48.7% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +3.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 11 6 3 2 21
2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 11 6 2 3 20
3 Oleksandria 11 5 4 2 19
4 SK Poltava 11 5 3 3 18
5 Yarud Mariupol' 11 5 3 3 18
6 Kulykiv 10 5 2 3 17
7 Lokomotiv Kyiv 11 4 4 3 16
8 Prykarpattia 11 4 3 4 15
9 Metal Kharkiv 11 4 3 4 15
10 Nyva Ternopil 11 3 5 3 14
11 Inhulets 10 4 2 4 14
12 Kolos Kovalivka II 11 4 0 7 12
13 Chernihiv 10 2 4 4 10
14 UCSA 11 2 4 5 10
15 Probiy Horodenka 11 2 2 7 8
16 Polissya II 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kulykiv 10 20 11 +9 17
2 SK Poltava 11 18 10 +8 18
3 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 11 18 14 +4 20
4 Oleksandria 11 16 10 +6 19
5 Lokomotiv Kyiv 11 15 13 +2 16
6 UCSA 11 15 19 -4 10
7 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 11 14 8 +6 21
8 Yarud Mariupol' 11 14 12 +2 18
9 Polissya II 10 14 20 -6 7
10 Metal Kharkiv 11 13 13 0 15
11 Prykarpattia 11 12 10 +2 15
12 Nyva Ternopil 11 12 10 +2 14
13 Kolos Kovalivka II 11 12 20 -8 12
14 Chernihiv 10 11 14 -3 10
15 Probiy Horodenka 11 11 29 -18 8
16 Inhulets 10 10 12 -2 14
Persha Liga Ukraine. Persha Liga Predictions