Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava

Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava Statistics & Analysis

Probiy Horodenka Probiy Horodenka
Oct 10, 2026 - 10:30
3 1.23
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 52%
SK Poltava SK Poltava
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SK Poltava Probiy Horodenka ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13187508

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Probiy Horodenka win · Probiy Horodenka 3–2 SK Poltava
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Probiy Horodenka 1.23 — SK Poltava 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 11 6 3 2 21
2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 11 6 2 3 20
3 Oleksandria 10 5 4 1 19
4 SK Poltava 11 5 3 3 18
5 Kulykiv 10 5 2 3 17
6 Prykarpattia 10 4 3 3 15
7 Yarud Mariupol' 10 4 3 3 15
8 Metal Kharkiv 11 4 3 4 15
9 Inhulets 10 4 2 4 14
10 Lokomotiv Kyiv 10 3 4 3 13
11 Kolos Kovalivka II 10 4 0 6 12
12 Nyva Ternopil 10 2 5 3 11
13 UCSA 10 2 4 4 10
14 Probiy Horodenka 11 2 2 7 8
15 Chernihiv 9 1 4 4 7
16 Polissya II 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kulykiv 10 20 11 +9 17
2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 11 20 15 +5 20
3 SK Poltava 11 18 10 +8 18
4 Oleksandria 10 15 7 +8 19
5 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 11 14 8 +6 21
6 UCSA 10 14 17 -3 10
7 Polissya II 10 14 20 -6 7
8 Metal Kharkiv 11 13 13 0 15
9 Prykarpattia 10 12 9 +3 15
10 Yarud Mariupol' 10 12 11 +1 15
11 Lokomotiv Kyiv 10 12 12 0 13
12 Inhulets 10 11 14 -3 14
13 Kolos Kovalivka II 10 11 17 -6 12
14 Probiy Horodenka 11 11 29 -18 8
15 Chernihiv 9 10 14 -4 7
16 Nyva Ternopil 10 9 9 0 11
Persha Liga Ukraine. Persha Liga Predictions