Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / Prykarpattia vs Chernihiv

Prykarpattia vs Chernihiv Statistics & Analysis

Prykarpattia Prykarpattia
Oct 11, 2026 - 09:30
0 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
Chernihiv Chernihiv
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Prykarpattia Chernihiv ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13186553

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Chernihiv win · Prykarpattia 0–1 Chernihiv
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Chernihiv (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Chernihiv (1X2) by about 12.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Prykarpattia (1X2) 37.0 49.9 -12.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.5 +0.1
Chernihiv (1X2) 33.4 20.6 +12.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Chernihiv (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.6%. The difference — about 12.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: segurobet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Prykarpattia (1X2) 1.82 1.82 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.08 3.08 0.0
Chernihiv (1X2) 4.4 4.4 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: Prykarpattia vs Chernihiv
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Prykarpattia 1.34 — Chernihiv 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 11 6 3 2 21
2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 11 6 2 3 20
3 Oleksandria 11 5 4 2 19
4 SK Poltava 11 5 3 3 18
5 Yarud Mariupol' 11 5 3 3 18
6 Kulykiv 10 5 2 3 17
7 Lokomotiv Kyiv 11 4 4 3 16
8 Prykarpattia 11 4 3 4 15
9 Metal Kharkiv 11 4 3 4 15
10 Nyva Ternopil 11 3 5 3 14
11 Inhulets 10 4 2 4 14
12 Kolos Kovalivka II 11 4 0 7 12
13 Chernihiv 10 2 4 4 10
14 UCSA 11 2 4 5 10
15 Probiy Horodenka 11 2 2 7 8
16 Polissya II 10 1 4 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kulykiv 10 20 11 +9 17
2 SK Poltava 11 18 10 +8 18
3 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 11 18 14 +4 20
4 Oleksandria 11 16 10 +6 19
5 Lokomotiv Kyiv 11 15 13 +2 16
6 UCSA 11 15 19 -4 10
7 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 11 14 8 +6 21
8 Yarud Mariupol' 11 14 12 +2 18
9 Polissya II 10 14 20 -6 7
10 Metal Kharkiv 11 13 13 0 15
11 Prykarpattia 11 12 10 +2 15
12 Nyva Ternopil 11 12 10 +2 14
13 Kolos Kovalivka II 11 12 20 -8 12
14 Chernihiv 10 11 14 -3 10
15 Probiy Horodenka 11 11 29 -18 8
16 Inhulets 10 10 12 -2 14
Persha Liga Ukraine. Persha Liga Predictions