Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / SK Poltava vs Chernihiv

SK Poltava vs Chernihiv Statistics & Analysis

SK Poltava SK Poltava
Oct 02, 2026 - 11:00
3 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 52%
Chernihiv Chernihiv
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SK Poltava SK Poltava ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10965489

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SK Poltava win · SK Poltava 3–2 Chernihiv
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: SK Poltava vs Chernihiv
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): SK Poltava 1.39 — Chernihiv 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 10 6 2 2 20
2 Oleksandria 10 5 4 1 19
3 SK Poltava 10 5 3 2 18
4 Kulykiv 10 5 2 3 17
5 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 10 5 2 3 17
6 Prykarpattia 10 4 3 3 15
7 Yarud Mariupol' 9 4 2 3 14
8 Metal Kharkiv 10 4 2 4 14
9 Inhulets 9 4 2 3 14
10 Lokomotiv Kyiv 10 3 4 3 13
11 Kolos Kovalivka II 10 4 0 6 12
12 Nyva Ternopil 9 2 4 3 10
13 UCSA 10 2 4 4 10
14 Chernihiv 9 1 4 4 7
15 Polissya II 10 1 4 5 7
16 Probiy Horodenka 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kulykiv 10 20 11 +9 17
2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 10 17 14 +3 17
3 SK Poltava 10 16 7 +9 18
4 Oleksandria 10 15 7 +8 19
5 UCSA 10 14 17 -3 10
6 Polissya II 10 14 20 -6 7
7 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 10 12 6 +6 20
8 Prykarpattia 10 12 9 +3 15
9 Yarud Mariupol' 9 12 11 +1 14
10 Lokomotiv Kyiv 10 12 12 0 13
11 Metal Kharkiv 10 11 11 0 14
12 Kolos Kovalivka II 10 11 17 -6 12
13 Inhulets 9 10 11 -1 14
14 Chernihiv 9 10 14 -4 7
15 Nyva Ternopil 9 9 9 0 10
16 Probiy Horodenka 10 8 27 -19 5
Persha Liga Ukraine. Persha Liga Predictions