Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil

Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil Statistics & Analysis

Yarud Mariupol' Yarud Mariupol'
Oct 05, 2026 - 12:30
0 1.50
0 1.10
xG Accuracy: 49%
Nyva Ternopil Nyva Ternopil
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Yarud Mariupol' Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11670233

Closing Odds 3.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Yarud Mariupol' 0–0 Nyva Ternopil
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.96 percentage points on Yarud Mariupol' (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Yarud Mariupol' (1X2) 44.8 45.3 -0.5
Draw (1X2) 29.0 29.4 -0.5
Nyva Ternopil (1X2) 26.2 25.2 +1.0

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: ggbet → betmgm us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Yarud Mariupol' (1X2) 1.99 1.95 -1.0
Draw (1X2) 3.23 3.0 +0.9
Nyva Ternopil (1X2) 3.65 3.5 +0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-05 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.2%
  • xG (showing): Yarud Mariupol' 1.5 — Nyva Ternopil 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.0% · Probability edge: +7.2 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 10 6 2 2 20
2 Oleksandria 10 5 4 1 19
3 SK Poltava 10 5 3 2 18
4 Kulykiv 10 5 2 3 17
5 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 10 5 2 3 17
6 Prykarpattia 10 4 3 3 15
7 Yarud Mariupol' 9 4 2 3 14
8 Metal Kharkiv 10 4 2 4 14
9 Inhulets 9 4 2 3 14
10 Lokomotiv Kyiv 10 3 4 3 13
11 Kolos Kovalivka II 10 4 0 6 12
12 Nyva Ternopil 9 2 4 3 10
13 UCSA 10 2 4 4 10
14 Chernihiv 9 1 4 4 7
15 Polissya II 10 1 4 5 7
16 Probiy Horodenka 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kulykiv 10 20 11 +9 17
2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 10 17 14 +3 17
3 SK Poltava 10 16 7 +9 18
4 Oleksandria 10 15 7 +8 19
5 UCSA 10 14 17 -3 10
6 Polissya II 10 14 20 -6 7
7 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 10 12 6 +6 20
8 Prykarpattia 10 12 9 +3 15
9 Yarud Mariupol' 9 12 11 +1 14
10 Lokomotiv Kyiv 10 12 12 0 13
11 Metal Kharkiv 10 11 11 0 14
12 Kolos Kovalivka II 10 11 17 -6 12
13 Inhulets 9 10 11 -1 14
14 Chernihiv 9 10 14 -4 7
15 Nyva Ternopil 9 9 9 0 10
16 Probiy Horodenka 10 8 27 -19 5
Persha Liga Ukraine. Persha Liga Predictions