Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Oleksandria Statistics & Analysis

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Sep 20, 2026 - 11:30

1 1.34

0 1.26

xG Accuracy: 64%

Oleksandria

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ahrobiznes Volochysk ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8664449

Closing Odds 1.62

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ahrobiznes Volochysk win · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1–0 Oleksandria

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ahrobiznes Volochysk (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ahrobiznes Volochysk (1X2) by about 17.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ahrobiznes Volochysk (1X2)	37.0	19.3	+17.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	26.0	+3.6
Oleksandria (1X2)	33.4	54.7	-21.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	43.6	+4.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	56.4	-4.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Ahrobiznes Volochysk (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.3%. The difference — about 17.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ahrobiznes Volochysk (1X2)	4.58	4.58
Draw (1X2)	3.41	3.41
Oleksandria (1X2)	1.62	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	2.11	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	1.63	1.63

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Persha Liga
Fixture: Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Oleksandria
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.34 — Oleksandria 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.7% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +10.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Persha Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kulykiv	9	5	2	2	17
2	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	9	5	2	2	17
3	Oleksandria	9	4	4	1	16
4	SK Poltava	9	4	3	2	15
5	Prykarpattia	9	4	2	3	14
6	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	9	4	2	3	14
7	Yarud Mariupol'	9	4	2	3	14
8	Inhulets	8	4	2	2	14
9	Metal Kharkiv	9	4	1	4	13
10	Lokomotiv Kyiv	9	3	3	3	12
11	Nyva Ternopil	9	2	4	3	10
12	UCSA	9	2	4	3	10
13	Kolos Kovalivka II	8	3	0	5	9
14	Chernihiv	8	1	4	3	7
15	Polissya II	8	1	3	4	6
16	Probiy Horodenka	9	0	2	7	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kulykiv	9	19	9	+10	17
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	9	14	12	+2	14
3	SK Poltava	9	13	5	+8	15
4	Oleksandria	9	13	7	+6	16
5	Prykarpattia	9	12	9	+3	14
6	Yarud Mariupol'	9	12	11	+1	14
7	UCSA	9	12	14	-2	10
8	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	9	11	6	+5	17
9	Metal Kharkiv	9	11	11	0	13
10	Polissya II	8	11	14	-3	6
11	Inhulets	8	10	10	0	14
12	Lokomotiv Kyiv	9	9	9	0	12
13	Nyva Ternopil	9	9	9	0	10
14	Chernihiv	8	8	11	-3	7
15	Kolos Kovalivka II	8	8	15	-7	9
16	Probiy Horodenka	9	6	26	-20	2