Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / Metal Kharkiv vs Oleksandria

Metal Kharkiv vs Oleksandria Statistics & Analysis

Metal Kharkiv Metal Kharkiv
Aug 15, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 58%
Oleksandria Oleksandria
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Oleksandria Oleksandria ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3340211

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Oleksandria win · Metal Kharkiv 0–2 Oleksandria
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Metal Kharkiv (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Metal Kharkiv (1X2) by about 14.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Metal Kharkiv (1X2) 34.7 19.9 +14.8
Draw (1X2) 29.7 26.4 +3.3
Oleksandria (1X2) 35.6 53.7 -18.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.0 +2.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 54.0 -2.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Metal Kharkiv (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.9%. The difference — about 14.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Metal Kharkiv (1X2) 4.5 4.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
Oleksandria (1X2) 1.67 1.67 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.05 2.05 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: Metal Kharkiv vs Oleksandria
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Metal Kharkiv 1.29 — Oleksandria 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 6 5 1 0 16
2 SK Poltava 6 3 3 0 12
3 Oleksandria 6 3 3 0 12
4 Kulykiv 6 3 2 1 11
5 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 6 3 1 2 10
6 Metal Kharkiv 6 3 1 2 10
7 Prykarpattia 6 2 2 2 8
8 Inhulets 6 2 2 2 8
9 Chernihiv 6 1 4 1 7
10 Yarud Mariupol' 6 2 1 3 7
11 Nyva Ternopil 6 1 3 2 6
12 UCSA 6 1 3 2 6
13 Kolos Kovalivka II 6 2 0 4 6
14 Polissya II 6 0 3 3 3
15 Lokomotiv Kyiv 6 0 3 3 3
16 Probiy Horodenka 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kulykiv 6 12 7 +5 11
2 Oleksandria 6 11 5 +6 12
3 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 6 11 9 +2 10
4 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 6 10 2 +8 16
5 Metal Kharkiv 6 9 7 +2 10
6 UCSA 6 9 11 -2 6
7 SK Poltava 6 8 1 +7 12
8 Prykarpattia 6 8 6 +2 8
9 Inhulets 6 7 9 -2 8
10 Yarud Mariupol' 6 7 9 -2 7
11 Polissya II 6 7 10 -3 3
12 Chernihiv 6 6 6 0 7
13 Nyva Ternopil 6 5 6 -1 6
14 Kolos Kovalivka II 6 4 8 -4 6
15 Lokomotiv Kyiv 6 4 8 -4 3
16 Probiy Horodenka 6 4 18 -14 2
Persha Liga Ukraine. Persha Liga Predictions