Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Persha Liga / Oleksandria vs Nyva Ternopil

Oleksandria vs Nyva Ternopil Statistics & Analysis

Oleksandria Oleksandria
Jul 24, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 85%
Nyva Ternopil Nyva Ternopil
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Oleksandria Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1452929

Closing Odds 1.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Oleksandria 1–1 Nyva Ternopil
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.11 percentage points on Oleksandria (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Nyva Ternopil (1X2) by about 12.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Oleksandria (1X2) 48.1 64.8 -16.7
Draw (1X2) 28.5 24.0 +4.5
Nyva Ternopil (1X2) 23.4 11.2 +12.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 43.8 +4.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 56.2 -4.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.4% on Nyva Ternopil (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.2%. The difference — about 12.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Oleksandria (1X2) 1.44 1.39 +3.1
Draw (1X2) 3.47 3.75 -1.6
Nyva Ternopil (1X2) 6.99 8.06 -1.5
Over 2.5 goals 2.16 2.12 +1.2
Under 2.5 goals 1.6 1.65 -1.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Persha Liga
  • Fixture: Oleksandriya vs Nyva Ternopil
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.1% · Draw 28.5% · Away 23.4%
  • xG (showing): Oleksandriya 1.43 — Nyva Ternopil 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Persha Liga Persha Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kulykiv 9 5 2 2 17
2 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 9 5 2 2 17
3 Oleksandria 9 4 4 1 16
4 SK Poltava 9 4 3 2 15
5 Prykarpattia 9 4 2 3 14
6 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 9 4 2 3 14
7 Yarud Mariupol' 9 4 2 3 14
8 Inhulets 8 4 2 2 14
9 Metal Kharkiv 9 4 1 4 13
10 Lokomotiv Kyiv 9 3 3 3 12
11 Nyva Ternopil 9 2 4 3 10
12 UCSA 9 2 4 3 10
13 Kolos Kovalivka II 8 3 0 5 9
14 Chernihiv 8 1 4 3 7
15 Polissya II 8 1 3 4 6
16 Probiy Horodenka 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kulykiv 9 19 9 +10 17
2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 9 14 12 +2 14
3 SK Poltava 9 13 5 +8 15
4 Oleksandria 9 13 7 +6 16
5 Prykarpattia 9 12 9 +3 14
6 Yarud Mariupol' 9 12 11 +1 14
7 UCSA 9 12 14 -2 10
8 Viktoriya Mykolaivka 9 11 6 +5 17
9 Metal Kharkiv 9 11 11 0 13
10 Polissya II 8 11 14 -3 6
11 Inhulets 8 10 10 0 14
12 Lokomotiv Kyiv 9 9 9 0 12
13 Nyva Ternopil 9 9 9 0 10
14 Chernihiv 8 8 11 -3 7
15 Kolos Kovalivka II 8 8 15 -7 9
16 Probiy Horodenka 9 6 26 -20 2
Persha Liga Ukraine. Persha Liga Predictions