Statistics / Football / Switzerland. AXA Women’s Super League / Yverdon vs Aarau

Yverdon vs Aarau Statistics & Analysis

Yverdon Yverdon
Sep 13, 2026 - 12:30
4 1.44
1 1.16
xG Accuracy: 47%
Aarau Aarau
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yverdon Yverdon ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7431979

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yverdon win · Yverdon 4–1 Aarau
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: AXA Women’s Super League
  • Fixture: Yverdon vs Aarau
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): Yverdon 1.44 — Aarau 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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AXA Women’s Super League AXA Women’s Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Servette Chênois W 7 5 1 1 16
2 Zürich W 7 4 3 0 15
3 Grasshopper W 7 4 2 1 14
4 Young Boys W 7 3 3 1 12
5 Basel W 7 3 3 1 12
6 Luzern W 7 3 2 2 11
7 Yverdon 7 1 2 4 5
8 Rapperswil Jona 7 1 2 4 5
9 St. Gallen W 7 1 1 5 4
10 Aarau 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zürich W 7 20 6 +14 15
2 Grasshopper W 7 19 7 +12 14
3 Servette Chênois W 7 15 8 +7 16
4 Young Boys W 7 12 9 +3 12
5 Luzern W 7 12 9 +3 11
6 Yverdon 7 11 14 -3 5
7 Basel W 7 10 7 +3 12
8 Rapperswil Jona 7 10 18 -8 5
9 St. Gallen W 7 7 18 -11 4
10 Aarau 7 5 25 -20 1
AXA Women’s Super League Switzerland. AXA Women’s Super League Predictions